Picks for every game in the Big 12 and where each team in the expanded league will finish.
Cody Nagel
The new-look Big 12 ispoised to provide plenty of excitement in 2024 even with the departures of Oklahoma and Texas. It mightbe the hardest power conference to predict this season with minimal separation between the top and middle tiers. Yet, someone will rise above the rest to claim the Big 12 title in December and secure a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff. Who will it be?
Five Big 12 teams landed in the preseason AP Top 25 rankings with Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Utah leading the way. Will the Big 12 champion come from that group of three, or will a surprise winner emerge? And with an expanded playoff, could the Big 12 send two teams? What should be expected from Colorado and Deion Sanders in a return to the Big 12?
Making game-by-game predictions and determining the final order of finish in the Big 12 for 2024 is no easy task.
RELATED:Big 12 football power rankings|Get the latest football and recruiting scoop on your favorite college team today.
Below are thegame-by-game predictions for everyBig 12 team and the projected order of finish in the league:
HOUSTON COUGARS (2-10, 0-9)
Wins: UNLV, Rice
Losses: Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Iowa State, TCU, Kansas, Utah, Kansas State, Arizona, Baylor, BYU
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (3-9, 1-8)
Wins: Wyoming, Texas State, BYU
Losses: Mississippi State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Utah, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, UCF, Kansas State, Arizona
BYU COUGARS (3-9, 2-7)
Wins: Southern Illinois, Arizona, Houston
Losses: SMU, Wyoming, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF, Utah, Kansas, Arizona State
CINCINNATI BEARCATS (5-7, 2-7)
Wins: Towson, Pittsburgh, Miami (Ohio), Houston, Arizona State
Losses: Texas Tech, UCF, Colorado, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU
COLORADO BUFFALOES (4-8, 2-7)
Wins: North Dakota State, Colorado State, Baylor, Cincinnati
Losses: Nebraska, UCF, Kansas State, Arizona, Texas Tech, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma State
BAYLOR BEARS (5-7, 3-6)
Wins: Tarleton State, Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
Losses: Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Projected Record: 8-4, 5-4(tied for 9th)
Wins:Abilene Christian, Washington State, North Texas, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Baylor, Colorado, West Virginia
Losses:Arizona, TCU, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
The word:Expect Texas Tech to win early and crack the national top 25 rankings heading into the first week of October. The Red Raiders and head coach Joey McGuire got a very manageable September slate before the path in the Big 12 gets a bit tougher with games at Arizona, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and TCU.The last time Texas Tech hadthree-consecutive seasons with at least seven wins under the same head coach was during the Mike Leach era in the late 2000s.
Arizona Wildcats
Projected Record:7-5, 5-4 (tied for 9th)
Wins:New Mexico, Northern Arizona, Texas Tech, Colorado, West Virginia, Houston, Arizona State
Losses:Kansas State, Utah, BYU, UCF, TCU
The word: Arizona ranks among the top five in our preseason Big 12 power rankings. This Wildcats squad, now under the leadership of new head coach Brent Brennan, brings back several key players on both sides of the football. However,a big question remains — how well will these returning stars mesh with an incoming staff that includes two new coordinators? The game against Big 12 title contender Kansas State is technically a non-conference game, but there are other challenging road trips elsewhere on the Arizona schedule.
UCF Knights
Projected Record:8-4, 6-3(tied for 4th)
Wins:New Hampshire, Sam Houston, Colorado, Cincinnati, BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah
Losses:TCU, Florida, Iowa State, West Virginia
The word:UCF wasfour points away from being a nine-win team in its Big 12 debut a year ago. The Knights are loaded offensively with the addition of former Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson, who perfectly fits the mold of what head coach Gus Malzahn wants at that position.More consistency on defense under new coordinator Ted Roof, who coached with Malzahn at Auburnin 2010 during a national championship run, could take UCF up a notch in 2024.
Kansas Jayhawks
Projected Record:9-3, 6-3(tied for 4th)
Wins:Lindenwood, Illinois, UNLV, TCU, Arizona State, Houston, BYU, Colorado, Baylor
Losses:West Virginia, Kansas State, Iowa State
The word:Kansas is not catching any opponent off guard now thatfourth-year head coach Lance Leipold has the Jayhawks established as a threat in the Big 12. The talent level in Lawrence has increased. And Kansas should have the best quarterback in the conference if Jalon Daniels can remain healthy.He missed a total of 14 games the past two seasons. The Jayhawks seem confident the lack of true home games in Lawrence this season will not affect the results. A massive reconstruction of the stadium means Kansas will make the short trip to Kansas City for its six home games.
TCU Horned Frogs
Projected Record:9-3, 6-3(tied for 4th)
Wins:Stanford, Long Island, UCF, SMU, Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Cincinnati
Losses:Kansas, Utah, Baylor
The word:TCU needs a bounce-back season. The Horned Frogs failed to reach a bowl game after finishing runner-up in the College Football Playoff two years ago. TCU brought in one of the top transfer portal hauls for the Big 12 to help get the program back on track. Coach Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs could play a bit of spoiler this season with key games against projected conference title contenders Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Utah. Splitting those four matchups should get TCU to nine wins.
Iowa State Cyclones
Projected Record:8-4, 6-3(tied for 4th)
Wins:North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, UCF, Texas Tech, Kansas, Cincinnati
Losses:Iowa, West Virginia, Utah, Kansas State
The word:Iowa State essentially brings everyone back from last season as one of the FBS leaders in returning production.Matt Campbell proved why he is among the best coaches in the conference a year ago by getting the Cyclones to a bowl game despite the illegal gambling distractions the team faced in the offseason. This Iowa State group is dangerous. But that final five-game stretch to close out the regular season isdifficult.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Projected Record:8-4, 6-3(tied for 4th)
Wins:Albany, Pittsburgh, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Baylor, UCF
Losses:Penn State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Texas Tech
The word: The legitimacy of West Virginia in 2024 could be tested immediately in their season opener against Penn State. If the Mountaineers put up a strong fight against a likely College Football Playoff participant, then it should serve to boost their confidence moving forward into the Big 12 slate. A five-game stretch that features four preseason AP Top 25 teams is a tough hill to climb, but West Virginia could go unbeaten in November in pursuit of clinching bowl eligibility.
Utah Utes
Projected Record:10-2, 7-2 (tied for 2nd)
Wins:Southern Utah, Baylor, Utah State, Arizona, Arizona State, TCU, Houston, BYU, Colorado, Iowa State
Losses:Oklahoma State, UCF
The word:Utah is widely projected to contend for a Big 12 title in its debut season. The Utes get star quarterback Cam Rising back after he sat out all of 2023 while recovering from a knee injury. Transfer portal additionsat the skill positions make this offense dangerous. The defense is always tough under head coach Kyle Whittingham and coordinator Morgan Scalley, who was named the eventual successor once Whittingham decides to retire. Will that be at the end of 2024 if Utah reaches the College Football Playoff?
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Projected Record:10-2, 7-2 (tied for 2nd)
Wins:South Dakota State, Arkansas, Tulsa, Utah, West Virginia, BYU, Baylor, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Colorado
Losses:Kansas State, TCU
The word: How far can potential Heisman Trophy contender Ollie Gordon carry this Oklahoma State squad in 2024? If the Pokes play to the level they are capable of with a veteran group of returning starters, it could be a historic season in Stillwater. A three-game stretch to open the Big 12 schedule with games against Kansas State, Utah and West Virginia willset the tone forOklahoma State and also determine tie-breaker scenarios for a spot in the conference title game.
Kansas State Wildcats
Projected Record:11-1, 8-1
Wins:UT Martin, Tulane, Arizona, BYU, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Kansas, Houston, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Iowa State
Losses:West Virginia
The word:Despite having zero players on the preseason All-Big 12 team, this Kansas State roster is not to be underestimated, especially with first-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson leading the offense.Defensively,the Wildcats were among the best in the Big 12 a year ago and return more than half of their starters. If Kansas State can defeat Oklahoma State in Week 5, it should go unbeaten at home. Avoiding slip-ups on the road is the greatest challenge for the Wildcats and their young quarterback.
